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Growing Economy

Now-casting.com uses statistical modelling to determine what individual economic data points tell us about the rate of growth. The now-cast shows the model’s evolving prediction of GDP growth in the current quarter.

Interest rates. The Bank of England increased interest rates above the 0.5 per cent ‘emergency levels’ they were cut to in 2009 for the first time in August 2018.

Markets are now speculating whether the central bank made the right decision to move before the outcome of the Brexit negotiations is known.

Markets. Movements in the bond and currency markets are a barometer of investor expectations about a country’s economic prospects.

Selling bonds through the Debt Management Office is the main way the UK government borrows money to fund the gap between what it spends and the money it receives.

A rise in the premium, or yield, demanded by markets for loaning money means funding the deficit becomes more expensive.

 

Sourse: ig.ft.com (2018).

Stable Environment

Interest rates will stay low. Another 0.25% hike is expected in late spring, taking the Bank of England base rate to 0.75%. That will add £22 to the typical £175,000 tracker mortgage, but with more than half of all borrowers on fixed rates, it will probably go unnoticed by most homeowners.

With the economy weak, the market does not expect any further hikes across the year. Mortgages will remain cheap although, with inflation outpacing wage rises, will still very much feel like a burden.

 

Source: (theguardian, 2019).

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